Probable monthly rainfall for machado county, south Minas Gerais state

Bruno Teixeira Ribeiro, Junior Cesar Avanz

Resumo


Probabilistic studies of climatic variables (e.g., rainfall) are very important to farming planning.
Machado County is located in the south of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, and it is characterized by intensive
coffee production. The objectives of this work were to evaluate the suitability of Gamma distribution
applied to monthly precipitation data and to estimate the probable monthly rainfall. Daily rainfall data
obtained from the Brazilian National Water Agency (ANA) were summed in monthly periods from
1962 to 1998, resulting in a historical dataset with 37 years of observations. After that, the monthly
rainfall data were applied to Gamma distribution and the probable rainfall estimated at different
probability levels. The suitability of the Gamma distribution was evaluated by Qui-Square Test (λ
2
).
The Gamma distribution was adequate for monthly periods and can be used to estimate the probable
rainfall and be employed in future related studies. The historical average rainfall has approximately
40% of probability to be overcome and its use may be not suitable for irrigation projects.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18406/2316-1817v2n12010260

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Direitos autorais 2017 Revista Agrogeoambiental

Rev. Agrogeoambiental, Pouso Alegre, MG, Brasil. e-ISSN: 2316-1817

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